This time of the year, everyone in every conference still has hopes of winning it, and zero losses in the standings. Of course, no one has any Ws yet either. But with just 2 weeks to go until Pac-12 teams start accumulating Ws (and Ls), its also the time of year where everyone starts tyring to predict how it will shake out. Those of us in the media even set those educated(?) guesses down in print, in order to provide readers with something to refer back to after the season when they are looking for amusement.
The Pac-12 media’s collective view has Utah picked to win, Oregon the (very) narrow choice over USC for second, and the other berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game (remember, while the schedule is built as has been the case around the divisions, the standings, and qualification for the Championship game, disregard divisions).
The Media poll has correctly picked the Conference Champion 32 of the last 61 seasons, and 5 times in the 11 years since the advent of the Conference Championship game.
It should be a wildly entertaining Pac-12 season because of how much uncertainty there is. There are things to get excited about, and respect, all up and down the conference. But even more uncertainties exist, many of them massive, and some downright terrifying, which will be more than enough to ensure that though everyone is probably going to pull off a win few if any expected, everyone is also going to pull off a loss in a game they had no business losing. More than one for most.
The top 3 appear at this point to be on a tier above the rest, and the bottom 3 on a tier below. The middle half is not only capable of finishing in any order, its possible any one of them will break into the top tier. Its also very possible any one of the 6 could find themselves in the bottom 3 instead.
Wild deviations in the non-conference schedules are also likely to create mis-leading records both ways, and the overall standings and conference standings, which the poll attempts to predict, are probably going to wind up differing considerably, and more than usual this year. Here’s my take:
1. Utah - The Utes are the team with the best collection of returning talent, the best coach, the best home field advantage in the south, and a favorable schedule.
2. USC - The Trojans have the best skill talent and a favorable schedule, and a new coach that has a proven track record in shootouts. Still a few holes to fill, but fewer than most people have.
3. Oregon - The best talent in the North, and a favorable schedule. If not for a first time at any level head coach, the Ducks would be ranked even higher, but the coaching turnover and the inevitable injury at a key position in the secondary will lose a game that shouldn't be lost at some point.
4. UCLA - Significant dropoff behind the top 3, but the Bruins have experience at QB, and have finally tried to address their defensive problems. A favorable early schedule will allow time to work things out by the time it matters.
5. Washington - The personnel and the schedule are good enough for an even higher rating, unless the QB problem is as real as it appears it might be. There is some hesitation surrounding the Huskies due to the coaching change, but its likely to cost a game, not a season, and actually having an offensive system will make a huge difference.
6. Washington State - If the QB situation is actually improved and not actually a dropoff, then the Cougs are the team most likely to out-perform expectations by the greatest amount. They also have the number on several of the teams they need to beat, and the Air Raid is a bad matchup for a lot of shaky defenses around the conference.
7. Oregon State - The schedule gets a lot tougher, and the Beavers have yet to prove themselves as a road team, or one not capable of multiple self inflicted losses. Also, far too many uncertainties are still uncertainties to not expect some regression by opponents' exploitation.
8. Arizona State - Despite substantial personnel losses, the Tempe heat and the schedule don't lend themselves to a finish this low. But who above them does anyone trust the Devils to finish ahead of?
9. California - Hard to think the Cal defense will allow enough games to get away to not finish higher, but also hard to see how the Cal offense produces enough points to finish any higher.
10. Stanford - The Cardinal can't continue to be as bad as they have been of late, can they? And won't they pull an upset like last year's against Oregon at some point? But then, David Shaw can keep his job with another year that would get him terminated at any of the other 11 campuses.
11. Arizona - The 'Cats have no where to go but up, and the personnel upgrades they have made should ensure that. But not by enough to be by much. The depth is still too shallow in Tucson.
12. Colorado - The turnover Colorado has faced coupled with the fact that Arizona has to be better (and gets the Buffs in the desert) means someone has to finish last, and there are fewer reasons to believe it won't be Buffs than anyone else. But beware, the Buffs are likely the best last place team in any conference.
andy_wooldridge@yahoo.com
(Photo by Andy Wooldridge)