2023 Pac-12 Preseason Picks
The last season of the Pac-12 as we have known it shapes up to be as exciting and as frustrating as any as we have known it. At least 5 teams, maybe 6, are not only in most pre-season top 25's, they can legitimately think they have a shot not only at the Conference Championship, but at least a NY6 Bowl, if not the College Football Playoffs, in the final year of only 4 teams getting in.
Of course not only will most if not all fall short of the CFP, and might well be relegated to the Las Vegas or LA Bowl. The reason, as usual, is a deep and competitive Pac-12 will see a lot of good teams tear each other up. As such, as much as ever, who you don't play, and when and where you do play who you do play, likely will have more to do with the order of finish that how good a team might actually be relative to the others.
The media as a group placed the teams as follows:
1. USC (25 first place votes) 413 points
2. Washington (4) 367
3. Utah (6) 359
4. Oregon (1) 344
5. Oregon State 309
6. UCLA 248
7. Washington State 186
8. Arizona 176
9. California 132
10. Arizona State 122
11. Colorado 98
12. Stanford 54
My ballot aligned exactly, first to last, for the first time ever. Here are my thoughts as to why I picked the teams in thos order.
USC. In addition to returning the defending Heisman Trophy winner, Caleb Williams, who also happens to be the preseason favorite to repead, and the Pac-12 preseason first team QB, the Trojans get Utah, Washington, and UCLA all in the LA Coliseum, and don't play Oregon State, or have to go to the Palouse. If USC can get decent line play and avoid key inuries, things align well for a departure from the Pac as its champion.
But that will mean navigating a back half of the season that has the trip to Notre Dame and the Utah game back to back, and concludes with Washington, Oregon, and UCLA back to back to back.
Washingon. Michael Pennix Jr. is likely the best passer in the conference, especially if Williams falters at all, and the Husky offense has a chance to be the best passing offense in a pass-happy Pac-12. And they do get Oregon and Utah, as well as Boise State and Washington State, on Montlake.
Can the Huskies generate a rushing game to the degree that will support the passing offense? We probably won't know just how good the Huslies are before November, but we will find out in the last month of the season, when the Huskies have to go to USC, host Utah, go to Oregon State, week after week after week, and then take on the Cougars in the Apple Cup. If they get to Las Vegas the following weekend for the Pac-12 Championship Game, they will have earned it, after possibly the toughest November in Pac-12 history.
Utah. The 2 time depending conference chanpions are well positioned to make a run at a trhee-peat, as the Utes have more preseason All-Conference first team players than anyone.
But how well QB Cam Rising bounces back from a major knee inury is the big question, both for Utah's season opening non-conference 1-2 punch against Florida, and at Baylor, and in a regular season that includes trips to Oregon State, USC, and Washington, and a visit from Oregon, but no game against Stanford, not the best hit and miss combination in the divisional schedule rotation still in effect in a divisionless Pac-12.
Oregon. The Coach Dan Lanning / QB Bo Nix combination in year 2, with a solid running game to support Nix's passing, should refine and improve over a good first season, but one where notable miscues led to notable losses. If that happens a manageable schedule, one with trips to Seattle (but after a bye week) and Salt Lake City will be balanced against a stretch run where the Ducks get USC and Oregon State in Autzen, and a trip to Tempe in late November, not in the hottest part of the season.
It will be about Oregon maximizing considerable potential, but the schedule avoids the long stretches of tough games lined up for most of the rest of the conference's contenders.
Oregon State. Another case of a favorable schedule affording Coach Jonathan Smith and new QB DJ Uiagalelei time to address and sort out the loss of and replacements for 3 key DBs now in the NFL, and 3 key LBs, plus all the other aspects of the Jack Colletto factor, which will probably take a half dozen players to replace.
But a strong offensive line in front of the 1-2-3 punch of Damien Martinez, Deshaun Fenwick, and Jam Griffin makes literally everyting else easier. So does getting Utah, UCLA, and Washington all in newly remodeled Reser Stadium, and not having to deal with USC unless its in the conference championship game.
UCLA. Replacing QB Dorian Thonpson-Robinson and RB Zach Charboneau will determine how the Bruins last Pac season will go. There is enough talent on hand to do it, and take care of the rest of the positions.
Fortunately, Coach Chip Kelly has the #2 ranked QB recruit in the country, 5 star Dante Moore, and a history of coaching up quarterbacks. And a friendly schedule. The Bruins only leave the state of California 3 times, and one of those trips is to Tucson. And no Oregon or Washington to deal with.
Washington State. Roster losses to the transfer portal have many people concerned with the Cougars, especially after an erratic offense was a problem for Coach Jake Dickert last season, leaving questions about QB Cameron Ward. But look closely and the poor performances coincided closely and mostly with injuries.
The return of a healthy Nakia Watson and deft management of incomimg transfers could make for a better season than some expect. And the Cougars were a bowl team again last year. The early season schedule sees the Cougars hosting Wisconsin (a team they beat in Madison that will be early in a new coaching era) and Oregon State. And the schedule does not include USC and Utah, the 2 teams from the south half of the conference anyone would most want to miss.
Arizona. Coach Jedd Fisch continues to rebuild and resurrect the Wildcats, and the foundation laid last year should bear some more this season.
If QB Jayden de Laura's off field history doesn't prove a too much of a distraction (and it should distract outsiders far more than it does the team), de Laura's formidable talent and yet another favorable schedule could produce some upsets. The Cats get Washington, Oregon State, UCLA, and Utah all in Tucson (and while they got to Mississippi State, the post-Mike Leach era might not be a fully settled situation yet).
California. Coach Justin Wilcox will try yet again to get a competent offense on the field, this time with the addition of new Offensive Coordinator Jake Spavital, and the introduction of a more pass-intensive system. Trouble is the best weapon the Bears have is RB Jaydn Ott, and whether a better passing game will compliment Ott more than it will dimish his role remains to be seen.
Significant transfer portal losses were met with even more transfers in, so continuity could be a while coming. Not good when Cal is facing one of the toughest schedules in the country, never mind the conference. Trips to North Texas to start the season, Washington, and UCLA for a final UC system rivalry game, and their other rivalry game with Stanford on the Farm, meaning no home game after Veterans Day, as well as a game against Auburn from the SEC, is a recipe for disaster. And that isn't even the tough part, consecutive games against Oregon State, at Utah, against USC, and at Oregon makes even getting within signt of a winning season a long shot.
Arizona State. The Sun Devils have moved on from the Herm Edwards era with former Oregon Offensive Coordinator Kenny Dillingham. And a load of transfers in an attempt to rebuild a roster that already lacked cohesiveness, and wasn;t all that talented.
This is Dillingham's first head coaching job, and inexperience was as much of a problem as creativity was an asset at Oregon. Eight (!) home games should help, and a similar schedule a couple of years into the Dillingham era could be the springboard to a conference championship game, or more. But getting consistency from the Devils this soon doesn't seem possible.
Colorado. Coach Deion Sanders turned over the Buffs program entirely (75 of 85 scholarship players are new) when he arrived, and given the lack of talent on hand from the Karl Dorrell era, that probably won't hurt. But even if complete roster overhaul comes together, and some circulatory problems doesn't slow down Coach Prime, the schedule probably will.
Opening with a trip to TCU, fresh off a National Championshup Game appearance, followed by visits from heated rivals Nebraska and Colorado State, a trip to Oregon, a visit from USC, and a trip to the heat of the desert in Tempe, could devistate a program much further along with a rebuild. If that's not enough, the Buffs finish with late November trips to the Palouse and Utah.
Stanford. The David Shaw era is over. Troy Taylor should bring moderization to the Farm, but transfer protal challenges hampered actually infusing the Cardinal with some talent. The odd year favorable schedule would normally be the launchpad for a conference title run.
There is a trip to USC, but also a vacation stop at Hawaii, but there is no trip to the desert, and no game against Utah. Oregon, UCLA, Washington, Cal (for the not really that big game), and Notre Dame all have to go to the Farm, so there is a chance to steal a game or two. But Taylor will have to work roster magic to get Stanford out of the conference cellar.
andy+wooldridge@yahoo.com